核能發電回春?想出來的人正豬頭﹗

西雅圖凹凸鏡 – 從反核到擁核—荒謬的邏輯!
http://blog.yam.com/kueihsienl/article/13934485

到這個時代竟有重新重視核能發電之見,可見當今政壇上盡是成事不足敗事有餘的無能之輩…

Rocky Mountain Institute – Nuclear Power
http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid185.php

  • It’s too expensive. Nuclear power has proved much more costly than projected — and more to the point, more costly than most other ways of generating or saving electricity. If utilities and governments are serious about markets, rather than propping up pet technologies at the expense of ratepayers, they should pursue the best buys first.
  • Nuclear power plants are not only expensive, they’re also financially extremely risky because of their long lead times, cost overruns, and open-ended liabilities.
  • Contrary to an argument nuclear apologists have recently taken to making, nuclear power isn’t a good way to curb climate change. True, nukes don’t produce carbon dioxide — but the power they produce is so expensive that the same money invested in efficiency or even natural-gas-fired power plants would offset much more climate change.
  • And of course nuclear power poses significant problems of radioactive waste disposal and the proliferation of potential nuclear weapons material.

桂賢說得好

全球暖化是世界不永續的現象之一,這些所謂專家學者都忽略了,我們的世界之所以會越來越不永續,是人們生活方式的根本問題,是價值觀的問題,在我看來,其中最大的價值觀問題,就是盲目迷信科技、和不存在的科學確定性。因為以為科技可以解決任何問題、可以取代任何的自然機制,我們任意地改變與改造我們的環境;有了科技,我們毫無節制地使用能源,以為科技必定可以帶來源源不絕的能源。

在我看來,要解決問題的方法有很多種,治標的解決方式就是減少能源使用量,改變人類使用能源的習慣,設法讓我們的生存不需要仰賴太多的外在能源,這一個更值得研究和開發的領域,有帶頭作用的學者們為何不鼓勵和推廣呢?如果我們使用能源的習慣不改,找再多的「乾淨能源」也無滿足能源需求的無底洞。

「乾淨能源」是一個相當誤導的名詞。我們必須知道,沒有任何一種能源的開發,是真正乾淨的。不久以前人們還以為是解藥的生質能源,其「副作用」,已經出現:生質能源的大量栽種排擠其他糧食作物,影響糧食的價格,不但如此,還造成更多森林被砍伐來栽種生質能源,影響生物多樣性,近來,研究人員更發現,生質能源的栽種反而產生更多的二氧化碳排放。

跟 RMI 其中一個 Approach to Energy 如出一轍

Rocky Mountain Institute – RMI’s Approach to Energy
http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid249.php

A Watt Saved is a Watt Earned/Demand-Side Management

Thinking little about their customers’ end-use demands, electric utilities historically believed their business was simply to sell electrons. They created giant, centralized systems that relied on multi-billion-dollar power plants that took years to build, thinking they had no choice but to keep up with demand for electrons. Some still think this, but most now realize that it’s usually cheaper to help their customers save electricity than try to sell them more of it—because selling more means having to build more expensive, economically risky power plants. “Demand-side management,” a practice that Amory Lovins helped pioneer and RMI has consistently promoted, recognizes the fundamental equivalence of savings and supply. The cost of saving electricity — or saving any sort of energy, or any sort of resource — should be weighed alongside the cost of producing more of it. Saving energy is usually cheaper, and not only that, it also reduces pollution and many other problems. As Gary Zarker of Seattle City Light says: “There’s no cheaper, cleaner power than power you don’t have to produce.”

政客們唔該醒少少當幫忙,唔好將境況越攪越糟…

Further reading

Rocky Mountain Institute – E05-14, Nuclear Power: Economics and Climate-Protection Potential — 06 January 2006 (PDF-475k)
http://www.rmi.org/images/PDFs/Energy/E05-14_NukePwrEcon.pdf

補充 (May 3, 2008)

Rocky Mountain Institute – Forget Nuclear
http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid467.php

9 Responses to “核能發電回春?想出來的人正豬頭﹗”

  1. 方潤 Says:

    倒不完全同意。

    核電確實是解決方案的一部分,現在的核電科技其實安全得多。
    問題是,核電也不是可再生能源,只能作為由化石能源轉為可再生能源之間的補充。(因為可再生能源暫時未能完全取代化石能源)

    作者指出的問題當然是核心,但問題是,就算讓他當總統,也無法完全消滅這問題。政府卻有責任策劃穩定的電力供應。所以找「替代能源」是無法避免的。

  2. Alan Says:

    其一︰資源錯配 – 核電的 C/P 值很低,不值得投放大量資源做一件原本可以有更好方法解決之事,如︰end-use efficiency、教育等。

    其二︰「可再生能源暫時未能完全取代化石能源」是事實,但台灣歐洲等地現在主要依賴的是化石能源,以可再生能源滿足新需求應沒有問題才對,兩者之間無需要使用到核能發電 (北歐已決定逐步淘汱核能發電,改以風能等代替,現在這邊說再起核電廠,不是本末倒置嗎?)

    其三︰RMI 多份報告都指出美國很多發電設施只以低產量運作,顯示有嚴重供過於求的問題。若換作是核電廠,它一開始了只能穩定運作,不像其他可以依需求靈活調節,可預料有大量多餘的電被白白浪費。假設其他地方的情況跟美國相同,她們要做的應該是更好的資源調配,而非花大錢起將會造成更多浪費的設施。

    其四︰A Watt Saved is a Watt Earned/Demand-Side Management 已說得很清楚,有需求 (demand) 首先應考慮有沒有辦法降低需求,而非一味滿足用家。即使真的有需要,也應有長遠的目標,用上最好的技術產出能力內最潔淨的能源。若只為了減少二氧排放而用核能,這只不過是將問題轉移,曝露話事人沒有做 Systems Thinking。這又是違反另一 Approach to Energy 的地方。說「無法避免」未免也說得太輕易了吧…

    Rocky Mountain Institute – RMI’s Approach to Energy
    http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid249.php

    Systems Thinking

    In today’s complex world, designers and decision-makers too often define problems singly, without due attention to their causes or connections, and devise narrow “solutions” that merely shift the problem or create new ones in its place. For example, the usual response to an oil shortage is to encourage more domestic production (a “drain America first” strategy that will soon backfire) or to increase the flow of imports (which entails massive defense expenditures, and risk, to keep Gulf supply lines open). “Systems thinking” means considering the bigger picture to find solutions that avoid such unintended consequences and instead produce cascading benefits — as, for example, when more efficient vehicle designs not only make more oil unnecessary but also reduce pollution, protect the climate, save money, and strengthen the economy.

  3. 有涯 Says:

    對不起,這個我也不同意。即使人類從今天就開始改變生活方式,也只能減緩化石能源的消耗。我們不能只看今天,因為化石能源終有用盡的一日。這一天可能是今個世紀,或者最遲在下個世紀。這不是完全是溫室效應的問題,也不是安全與否的問題,更不是成本高低的問題。

    再生能源是可能的解決方法,月球上的氡氣也或者可以取代化石能源,但核能發電還是不能不搞。因為核能科技不是一蹴而就,我們不能把這個問題留給後代,待發覺化石能源不夠用,其他能源又不能提供所需時,才去想辦法。

    再看遠一點,人類總有一天離開地球這個搖籃,遠征深空,到時也不能靠所謂的化石或再生能源,核能似是不二之選。如果我們今天因為一點小原因就不搞核能,未來的人類不知會怎樣看我們。

    我們不但要搞核能,而且不要只搞核裂變,還要搞核聚變,因為核聚變比核裂變乾淨,而且不必用鈾,只需用氫。現在多國有一個合作計劃,在法國試驗熱核(核聚變)反應堆,成功的話將可解決地球未來1000年的能源問題。

    請參考拙文:熱核反應堆與國際權力平衡

  4. Alan Says:

    如你所說,科學家要解決的不只是溫室效應問題,還要確保有其他能源足以取代化石能源,確保供應穩定,所以他們都在努力研究如何提升轉能的效益 (太陽能、氫等),或如你所提的核聚變。這一點是你我都同意的。

    但是以目前的情況,我很肯定不需要用到核能發電就能保持生活無礙,那為什麼要急於為人類找藉口 (用舊技科技︰核裂變) 滿足需求呢?我想說的是,在「減緩化石能源消耗」的期間,產能 (核聚變、再生能源) 技術應會有長足的發展 (如︰核聚變在「廿一世紀中葉」,對嗎?),在成熟期前,以 Demand-Side Management、hybrid、biofuel、風、水能等應付能源需求是比較好的方法。須知道現在的能源效益有極大的改善空間,能慳的不是幾個百分比,而是兩成九成不等。我們在看得遠 (以持續研究應付) 之餘也要看得近 (以改變生活模式、注重能源效益應付)。

    在能源效益科技方面,我們只要相信另一個 Approach to Energy – “What Exists is Possible”,並實行起來,必可大大降低能源需求。

    Rocky Mountain Institute – RMI’s Approach to Energy
    http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid249.php

    What Exists is Possible

    There’s an old joke about an economist who was walking down the street and saw a $20 bill on the pavement. He didn’t pick it up because he assumed it didn’t exist; if it did, he reasoned, someone would have already picked it up. Many good ideas are slow to catch on because people assume that if it worked somebody would have done it already. That’s why RMI devotes much of its efforts to documenting the best and most profitable energy-efficient technologies, industrial and architectural designs, and business practices: if they exist, they must be possible.

    補充 (Feb 29, 2008)

    AutoblogGreen – “Driving a hydrogen-powered car in 2030 will be a common thing”
    http://www.autobloggreen.com/2008/02/28/driving-a-hydrogen-powered-car-in-2030-will-be-a-common-thing/

    Further readings

    Rocky Mountain Institute : Fuel Cells and Hydrogen
    http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid184.php

    Rocky Mountain Institute : Library – Fuel Cells & Hydrogen
    http://www.rmi.org/sitepages/pid255.php

  5. 方潤 Says:

    你說的不是不應該做,但政策從來沒有單一答案。

    多頭馬車要並進,既提升能量效益(於是不需更多能源滿足增加的需求)、降低能源消耗、和保持能源穩定。核能只是籃子裡的其中一項。

    如果政府只顧搞核能而忽略其他,批評當然可以。
    但攻擊核能本身,卻是偏離焦點。

  6. Alan Says:

    屋企有一斤叉燒未食 (夠一餐食,亦可以分成三餐),老豆嫌仲未夠,到街市加料買多一斤,但係全瘦的,而且要成三十蚊 (一般半肥瘦只要廿蚊),唔話佢就奇啦…

    p.s. 有涯在《西雅圖凹凸鏡》那邊留了言,可讀桂賢的回應。

  7. 有涯 Says:

    其實我說的是開源,你說的是節流。改變生活模式是節流之法,發展核能是開源之法,我認為兩者也沒有矛盾,兩者都應該做。

    只是引述那位作者的文章裡,雖然也是在說開源節流,但卻因為核能的危險性,而完全否定核能,我認為這不是務實的做法。

    我在西雅圖那邊新增了回應,可以過去看看

  8. Alan Says:

    我沒有排除「開源」,只是不認為核能 (核裂變) 優於其他再生能源。當單靠它們已能解決能源供應問題,則以不依賴核能 (核裂變) 為上。

    你在桂賢那邊的新回應的上半部分已超出我的知識範圍,我不能對之妄下判斷,只能待她的回應。

    而你所說「目前太陽能和其它乾淨能源都未能 (到) 成熟的階段」可以說是對了一半,之所以這麼說是因為未成熟但又未至於用不上,正如 06 年年尾已出現高達 40% 光電轉化效益的裝置 (化石能源則是 70%)

    Department of Energy – New World Record Achieved in Solar Cell Technology
    http://www.energy.gov/news/4503.htm

    柴油混合車可比現今汽油車高出一倍以上;南美國家將/已有全行 biofuel 的公共運輸系統等等,沒有核能 (核裂變) 一樣可以有「穩定的電源供應」,但一說到「保證」就即是唔理三七廿一去應付需求,那有我認為保有危機感反而比較好…


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